This model tells us no runner has broached the 1 in 4 likelihood line in more than 40 years. Have a look at the world records (the blue markers) in the plot and you'll notice since the 1980s they all fall within the main alley, near the bold grey line. ![]() ![]() ![]() The second observation is also important. With Kipchoge's new record included, runner X's chance of breaking sub-2 has moved forward nine years from May 2032 to April 2023 - next year! A single data point has shifted the expectations significantly. First, the goalposts have moved - substantially. Two insights fall out of this new analysis. What happens if I add Kipchoge's newest record run into the annals of records past, and let the model reassess? Until now, I've discussed predictions based on records from before Sunday's run. And the monumental cog of any grand human endeavour moves forward in exhilarating leaps, not metronomic steps. ![]() You can see this time marked as the square in the figure.īut marathoners are not robots. Importantly, this figure shows predictions before Kipchoge's newest record is added to the modelling, though we place his record on the figure (as "+") to contextualise his performance.īased on this modelling, if runner X turned up in Berlin on Sunday they would already be skating closer to the sub-2 line than Kipchoge managed - finishing at 2h 32s or better (about 37s faster than Kipchoge). Runner X improves their time and gets a little faster every week, eventually crossing the sub-2 barrier in May, 2032. In likelihood terms, runner X is assumed to be a "1 in 10" runner - forever navigating the 1 in 10 likelihood line of marathon progression as shown in the figure below.
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